The clown show that is the 2024 election will conclude tomorrow when polls close. We all understand that although that will be the end of voting, the counting will take a few days to conclude.
Here are a few of my predictions based on what I know about the candidates, our system, and the time we are in.
Trump will declare victory sometime Tuesday evening.
This particular elephant will try to be in every room on every tv screen as he declares victory in the election no matter what the evidence suggests. He will also say that any votes counted after he has declared this premature victory are fraudulent. The 2024 episode of The Big Lie will commence in full force, and the lawsuits will begin in earnest on Wednesday, just a few hours after he’s declared victory.
Republicans historically have a lead into the evening, and it even has a name. The Red Mirage happens because they will see early voting totals favor them as in-person ballots are counted first and this favors the Republicans. Just as it looks like they might run away with it, the Blue Shift occurs and Democrats make up the difference and even get ahead sometimes. It happens every single election cycle and this time will be no different.
As has been the case for the past couple, one candidate will be crying foul the second the Blue Shift begins to occur.
If Harris loses and it is called by the media, she will accept the news and offer congratulations to the other party.
I would stake all of the money in the world on this one. Harris hopes to unify and in the event of a loss, she will do what politicians have done since the beginning of our little republic. She will bow out gracefully. But the fury will be right behind her eyes because she understands what is at stake and the direction we might be headed now.
She will not declare fraud of any kind, and she will request recounts as they are warranted and justifiable. Because she is a reasonable person who understands that certain margins can call for a recount.
The Battleground States might be close enough to have automatic recounts.
I can honestly say I don’t understand how an election between these two people can be as close as they are calling it, but if it’s remotely true, the Battleground States will close with razor-thin margins. They may be so close that they’re automatically recounted, but if not that will bring me to my next point.
Trump will demand recounts everywhere he needs to secure electoral victory, no matter what the margin is.
He’ll say it is because of the non-existent fraud that is taking place at a federal, institutional level. The lawsuits started after the 2020 election and they have been jamming the dockets of every court in the nation since then to push the lie. It has been enough to convince plenty of rational, well-meaning citizens that our elections are somehow unsafe and unfair when nothing could be further from the truth.
Just because you lose doesn’t mean the system is the reason. Sometimes you just lose.
If Trump wins and Congress flips to all-red, it could be the end of this experiment in democracy.
With fewer guard rails in place and control of every aspect of the federal government, the Republican Party will do its best to set back the clock on everything 50+ years. We will begin our descent into autocracy and I believe we’ll be a stone’s throw away from another Civil War. This is an extreme that I will not stick around to be a part of because this country is not worth fighting over. I don’t believe any country is because it’s an imaginary concept with a line drawn on a map.
I will be thrilled if I’m just being dramatic, but I’m prepared to get out of here if things go the way I fear they will.
Polling could be meaningless.
Essentially every poll in the nation indicates that this is a coin flip. If it’s just inaccurate data, this could be a landslide one way or the other. I suspect it will be close but the polling indicates that it will be Bush 2000 close. That makes me sick to my stomach because…
The Supreme Court could decide this election.
The 6-3 conservative super-majority in that court tells me that any requests made of them will result in a Trump victory. Half of the 6 conservative justices owe their position to the man, and I completely understand how they will see things. It is insane to believe that any group of humans, no matter how small, can be truly impartial. If it goes to this court, Trump wins.
If Trump loses, there will be political violence.
He will tell his followers outright this time. No coded language about fighting like hell. To be clear, just like the last time, he will say it and then walk the other way. He will not be part of the actual violence, he’ll just cause it and blame everyone else. It’ll start as soon as the day after the race is called, but I’d say it’s a possibility from now until Inauguration Day in some form or another.
January 6, 2025 will make 2021 look like a dress rehearsal.
All of this is just speculation.
I hope that I’m dead wrong about all of this.
I want there to be a peaceful transition of power and a return to boring normal politics. The kind of time where I don’t care what is happening in Washington because it won’t set us back to a time when separate but equal was considered normal. A time when we can get back to disagreeing with one another respectfully instead of everything becoming a life-or-death fight over identity issues.
We are all basically looking for the same things in life and most of the time the government simply does not need to be involved.